Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Euro 2012 - Half way there...


Yesterday’s games wrapped up the first stage.  Good games for the most part.  Aside from the Dutch and the Irish, none of the teams have really disappointed.  But wait until next Euro; with 8 more teams added to the fray, quality will surely be diluted.  But let’s look at that positively:  …. Nah … can’t do it.  I don’t see any benefit to it, aside from making more money for UEFA, even though it means giving a chance to teams like… ahem…  Romania… For in the end, that’s why it’s called a Final Tournament; if you’re not good enough to qualify, you shouldn’t be there.  Simple as that.  But that’s another story for another day…

Let’s see what happened to date (each group title below is carried from my preview a couple of weeks ago: http://disdatdudder.blogspot.com/2012/06/euro-2012-preview.html).

Group A: The Eastern-Europeans

I got this one totally wrong!  Picked Russia first and Poland second… which was very much possible prior to the last set of games.  But Russia showed up too cocky after humiliating the Czechs [4-1] and even though they only needed one point, managed to lose to the Greeks!  As for the Poles, they would have done great in this tournament if matches were only 45 minutes long.  It seems they never had enough gas in the tank for the second half…

In the end, this group was quite “below par” overall.  Neither team can make any claims to progressing past the German and the Portuguese.  And although I don’t much care for the way the Greeks play, I applaud their “grit”.  Sometimes it takes a little bit of that in this game…

Group B: The tough one.

The Dutch were the story here... It seems like every tournament has a “favorite-to-implode” story.  France and Italy can attest to that in recent years.  It was Holland’s turn this time.  Clearly plenty of issues within the squad, both tactical and I’m sure ego-driven as well.  Otherwise how would you explain the World Cup finalists from 2 years ago leaving the competition with 0 [zero that is] points?!?   Earlier I wrote: “They have plenty of talent, especially in the top third of the pitch, but can they figure out a way to play together?”  The answer is obviously “NO”.

Germany was emphatic, and although the scores may not show it, they’ve been quite dominant so far.  Portugal on the other hand, pleasantly surprising (despite the fact that Cr. Ronaldo did not show up for the first 2 games).  Solid defense, hard working midfield, good team attitude overall.  I like ‘em.

Denmark started well (applying the first blow to the Dutch) but never quite recovered from losing that one point 2 minutes from time in the encounter with the Lusitans.  How often have we seen that happen… teams losing their concentration before the final whistle is blown.  Still, they are always fun to watch, always positive, and I’m sure they would have made it out of any other group...  Better luck next time!

Group C:  Spain + the surprise!

Surprise my ass! [pardonnez mon français].  Maybe I was in a “luck ‘o the Irish” mood when I predicted that Ireland will come in second… maybe I read too much into a relatively easy qualifying campaign… maybe I thought Italy did not have what it takes… maybe a major tournament was too much for them.  In the end, I’m left eating my words…

hmmmmm...???
Spain came top, without really running on all cylinders or impressing as they did in the past.  Part of it is the pressure of defending both the world and European titles.  The other is the “park-the-bus” approach that everyone takes against them.  Plus tired players after a long season at the highest level.  And then there’s the tactics around team setup.  With a striker… without a striker… with a “false” striker… Personally, although El Niño [Fernando Torres] hasn’t been in great form this year, he’s still a threat in the box.  And he was critical when they won the tournament 4 years ago, if I recall.  The challenge for del Bosque is to keep all the egos in check and find the right mix for the starting 11.  Not an easy task given that everyone on the bench can be a starter on any other team!

Between Italy and Croatia, I was pleasantly surprised by both.  Frankly, I was expecting less.  With a bit more courage the Croats could have edged past Italy (who I still think are not very strong, but they always “show up” when it matters).

Group D:  Predictable…

Just like the other co-hosts, Ukraine started well, but the victory over Sweden (due to some Sheva brilliance) is all they have to show for it.  They have all the rights to be frustrated by the tying goal that was never allowed [don’t get me started on goal-line technology].  It could have turned the match against England, but in the end the predictable outcome was met: England and France through.

looks like it did cross...
I had the order wrong, though (picked France first).  But in a group where Sweden loses to Ukraine, then beats France (the same France that beat Ukraine earlier) then anything can happen… Just like the Danes, their Nordic neighbors could have done better with a bit more concentration in defense (especially against England).

And a few words for England, of course:  lucky to top the group (and avoid Spain) but haven’t seen much quality.  Some may have to do with Rooney missing the first two games, but the defense is shaky at times, the midfield is hard-working yet unimaginative (no surprise there!) and some of their attacking options are not showing much beyond some set pieces here and there…

*            *            *            *            *

Aaaaanyway.  We’re half way there, like I said.  Now the real tournament begins. 

Portugal should not have a problem with the Czechs.  Although I don’t like Pepe [as a player or a person] I think him and Bruno Alves made the best central-defense pair so far [with Hummels and Badstuber a close second].  I also doubt that the Czechs can contain Cr. Ronaldo (who will score at least one).

Ditto for Germany against the Greek.  True, I never thought they’d get out of the group, but they had weak opposition up to this point.  They’re at the big boys table now!

Spain vs. France, though, should be a mouth-watering encounter.  Both are positive in their style of play, both have quality within their ranks, and both have something to prove:  Spain that winning the last 2 tournaments was not a fluke, and France that their “performance” [last in their group] in South Africa two years ago was.

Truthfully, I’m a bit scared.  First because Spain has struggled with team tactics and find it increasingly harder to break down defenses.  They really need to open up on the wings more.  It’s easier for teams that defend deep to block Spain’s attacks.  Then there’s the Ribéry threat.  I don’t think Arbeloa is good enough at right back.  So that’s the key, in my opinion.  It will be a matter of who makes fewer mistakes in the defense and who scores first.  But I see this one going to extra time, at least… I’m rooting for Spain, of course, but they need to step it up a notch in order to win.  Apparently they never beat France in an official competition… would this be a first?

Then there’s another “classic”: England vs. Italy.  Two more teams with “things to prove”.  Italy that they’ve put recent embarrassments away [also last in their WC group two years ago] and are a serious contender, and England that they are stronger than everyone gives them credit for.

In reality, Italy lacks depth and has a fairly weak midfield.  Yes, Pirlo is the “maestro” but he’s a little slow (although that hasn’t stopped him from scoring against Croatia and having a great assist in the game against Spain).  Both forwards [Cassano and Balotelli] are immensely talented but also fickle (especially Mario).  Continued Italian success rests on their shoulders, to some extent.  I also just read that Chiellini is out for the next game.  That’s a big blow for a defense that’s pretty frail [by Italian standards] as it is… 

England can consider themselves the luckiest team up to this point.  Scraped through with a point from the first match where France were clearly superior (yet lacked some sharpness up front), benefited from Swedish defense lapses to get all 3 points out of that encounter, and were really lucky to get a victory against Ukraine.

So this last quarterfinal encounter is more of a game where each side will be afraid lose, rather than go for the win.  If a win will come in regulation time, it will be some opportunistic set piece or defensive mistake.  I “see” this going to extra time also, but not nearly as entertaining as Spain-France.  In the end, England might come out on top by “a hair”.

From there, Portugal-Spain, for an all Iberian Peninsula encounter, and England-Germany.  This will mean the end of the road for the Brits (despite their desire to pay back for the defeat from the last World Cup).  The final: a replay of the last Euro final.  I’m sure the Germans want their revenge!

Ibra - with "my" goal of the tournament so far (against France)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTLRVn2Tnfc

...somebody clipped the Dutch's wings... (or did they fly too close to the sun?)...

Friday, June 8, 2012

Euro 2012 - the preview


Euro 2012.  Another big football [some call it soccer] tournament.  Another opportunity for players to showcase their skills on the highest stage.  For agents to hope for bargaining power.  For owners to whip out the checkbook and splash excessive “moola” on the latest talent.  For journalists and pundits to fill the papers and the cyberspace with their banter.  For bloggers to pretend anyone cares about what they have to say … ;-)…  And for us to waste countless hours in front of the tube (ok, the flat-panel-thing, rather) and online afterwards, sifting through all that jazz…

Oh, I left out the main reason: “bin’ness”, of course.  Money from sponsors, TV rights, advertising, merchandise, tickets, tourism… all that… which ensures that UEFA makes a pretty penny and the hosts recoup their investments.

And then there’s the whole European unity-fraternity thing that Platini keeps talking about.  Translation: “I need all these Eastern European votes in order to get reelected”.  Case in point: Bucharest hosted the UEFA Europa League final this spring.  Rhetorically, who do you think M. Sandu [Romanian federation president] will vote for in the next election?  ‘Zactly my point!    

So in my pragmatic opinion, it’s about money, politics and ultimately football.  Yep.  In that order!  For money and politics go hand-in-hand; always the leech-and-fungus combination that kills the sport…

Why else you’d “award” the honor to host such a prestigious event to a couple of countries where [typical to any eastern bloc entity] corruption, organized crime, prostitution, and racism run rampart.  If you don’t believe me, check out the recent BBC documentary “Stadiums of Hate”1 (hard to find on youtube, and not available on their site, but I’ve attached a couple links at the very end…)

While we’re on this kind of “dirt”, who doesn’t love a good story??  You’re aware of Ukrainian girls’ reputation when it comes to beauty, right?  Apparently, prostitution is also gaining notoriety in that corner of the world… Imagine that!  Recently there’ve been rumors of legalizing it… So a local feminist group (Femen) is protesting the tournament (against the potential “prostitution-related activity”) by…… get this…….. going naked: http://www.euronews.com/2011/12/02/femen-v-euro2012/ and even dressing up as a penis (http://en.gazeta.ru/photo/ukrainian_topless_feminists_dress_as_penises_to_protest_against_euro2012.shtml)


And while we’re on the feminist angle [before I dig myself that grave, those who know me realize I’m not anti-feminist; on the contrary, love ‘em!…  and I hope you take most of my “out-there” messages on the topic with a grain or two of salt… but I digress…]  so, then, while on this feminist angle, did you check out the logos and all the marketing pizazz for the tournament?  So many colors and pastels, you’d think this was a womens’ tournament.  I guess they’re trying to compensate for some of the Eastern Bloc “realities” I mentioned above…

Enough of all that nonsense.  Little of it will matter once the kick-off whistle is blown…

So let’s talk football.

Personally, I don’t have “skin in the game”, as they say.  Yeah, I like Spain, because I hope the winner (literally and figuratively) is beautiful football, but I’m in it purely for the entertainment factor.  Now, like anyone who’s been around the game for… ever, I think I’m qualified to give it a go and try to “play out” the tournament, if you will… Two years ago for the world cup (http://disdatdudder.blogspot.com/2010/06/world-cup-preamble-part-i.html) I think I did pretty good… all the way to picking the champions ;-)… so let’s try that again:

Group A: The Eastern-Europeans

Czech Republic.  They came out 2nd from their group [Spain 1st] but beat Montenegro on both play-off legs to qualify.  They had a third place finish in Portugal 2004, [I recall Nedved leaving the pitch in tears against Greece… had he played that whole game, we may have had a different European Champion that summer] but they’ve disappointed 4 years later when they lost to Turkey [3-2 after 0-2, with the last 2 Turkish goals scored by Nihat in the last 3 minutes.  Remember that?].  Today, they have little talent.  Sure, Petr Čech is still on a high after winning the Champions League, and Rosický, Hübschman and Plašil can form a solid midfield, but I don’t see much in terms of experience in front of Čech.  Milan Baroš is their one “name” up front, yet he’s never returned to his Liverpool form (although I hear he’s doing well for Galatasaray [latest report talks about a slight injury, also]).  Leading up to the tourney they’re not too hot (loss to Hungary, tie with Irelnd), so I really see them struggling to get out of this group…

Greece.  Won the tournament 8 years ago.  Finished dead-last 4 years ago.  Pretty sad display 2 years ago in South Africa also… Ultra-defensive.  They barely average a goal per game.  Yet, they topped their qualifying group ahead of Croatia.  Personally, nothing against the Greek, just don’t like how they play football.  Simple as that.  They “park the bus” [in front of goal], and hope to get lucky on a counter or a set-piece.  That style pays off now and then… It worked for them 8 years ago.  For Inter in the Barca champions League final couple of years ago, and more recently, for Chelsea, against both Barca and Bayern.  I just hope it won’t happen here… Prediction: not getting out of this group.  Maybe steal a point in the process…

Poland.  They’re claiming the best side they had in a while… No Lato or Boniek in their ranks, but a young team that will be carried by the home crowd.  Szczęsny  impressed with Arsenal this season.  So did the Dortmund trio [Lewandowski, Błaszczykowski and Piszczek] that helped win the bundesliga… They might edge the Czechs out of the group, but won’t go beyond that.

Russia.  They should top the group.  They’re hungry, with a lot to prove.  No World Cup appearance since 2002, and on the European stage they made it to the semifinals last time around (lost to Spain, the eventual winners).  They haven’t lost a game in more than a year, and just recently destroyed Italy [3-0] in a recent friendly.  Dick Advocaat knows how to get the best out of his players, and there are plenty in the squad that have played together for a while.  Let’s just hope they don’t flop [like they did in the playoff for South Africa against Slovenia].  They’ll lose to Germany or Holland after the group stage.

Group B: The tough one.

Denmark.  The tournament 4 years ago is the only Euro they missed in recent history.  Yet, this time around, although they topped a group that included Portugal and Norway, they seem “light” overall.  The Laudrup days are gone.  The likes of Bendtner, Poulsen and Agger are simply not good enough to make it out of the group. 

Germany.  The pedigree is there.  Third place at the last 2 World Cups.  Finalists in the last Euros.  Germany will be there again.  Only this time inconsistency casts some doubts over that statement.  Perfect record through the qualifiers, but losses in recent friendlies [France, Switzerland] may have killed their confidence a bit; or maybe brought a dose of reality…  Value is there, although defense is not as strong as it once been… it’s a matter of having the Bayern players refocus after they literally gifted the CL trophy to Chelsea.  I see them losing the semifinal, either to France or Spain (depending on whether they top the group or come in second).

Netherlands.  Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.  Always on the top stage, but the only trophy to show for it – the Euros back in ’88 [Van Basten, Rijkaard, Gullit & Co].  Strange, paradoxical almost, that the country that invented total football doesn’t really play much like a team, these days.  They have plenty of talent, especially in the top third of the pitch, but can they figure out a way to play together?  They’ll likely meet Spain again [if they top this group – which they should – in the final, otherwise in the semis] which should make for a mouth-watering replay of the last WC final!  

Portugal.  They don’t miss these things, although this time they qualified over playoffs against Bosnia and Herzegovina.  But they have not shown much since their final loss on home soil in 2004.  Cr. Ronaldo has been red-hot this season, but he never duplicates his club form playing for the national team.  They have some talent, but again, another case where they don’t really gel as a team.  They’re not going to make it out of this group… the Germans and the Dutch will prove too tough!

Group C:  Spain + the surprise!

Croatia.  Strangely enough, they came in second in their group [Greece first] but killed Turkey in the play-offs [3-0].  Strong, but inconsistent.  And with Olić out of the tournament, Eduardo really has to step up.  I think they’ll fight Ireland for the second spot in the group

Italy.  The Azzurri topped the easiest group of the qualifiers.  That may have given them a false sense of security, for they lost their last 3 friendlies [Uruguay, USA and Russia].  I’m wondering how much the recent Calcio scandals had to do with that… Last Calciopoli scandal [2006] guided them to a WC win… since then, however, they managed to exit the last WC in the groups stage.  Not much better in the Euros either.  The current team is built around a few Juve players, but – just as I noted in the write-up for the 2010 WC – there’s still no depth or value.  And I haven’t seen any real superstars coming through, lately… They might prove me wrong, but I don’t see them out of the group stage.  I see Ireland the surprise here…

Republic of Ireland.  Yep.  I see them placing second.  Trapattoni has put together a strong squad and they haven’t lost a game in over a year [3-2 friendly loss to Uruguay].  I think they’re going to be the surprise story in the group stage, and although I’d love to see them beat France in the first round, for some poetic justice [remember Henri’s blatant hand ball goal that denied them a trip to the WC 2 years ago?] that’s not likely to happen…

Spain.  Perfect record in the qualifiers, holders of both WC and Euro titles, and overall an amazing team to watch.  They will miss David Villa, but if Torres “shows up” and the defense synchs up, another trophy should be a breeze.  Otherwise, they’ll still win it, but the hard way.  I’m looking forward to a proper beating of Holland this time, so there won’t be any doubts… [Did I mention I was impartial?  Sure I did…]  

Group D:  Predictable…

England.  Oh, England.  They did not qualify for the last Euros, but topped an easy group for this one.  I see a bunch of tired players, total lack of creativity in the midfield and no bite up front (especially with Rooney missing the first two group games).  I think they’ll squeeze in second behind France, but only because the other two are even weaker… There are some promising young players, but I don’t see ‘em getting past Spain once the group stage is done.

France.  All or nothing.  Either win it all (WC ’98, Euro 2000) or don’t make it out of the group stage (last two major tournaments).  That’s France.  But after the disaster from the last WC, Blanc cracked the whip and put together a pretty decent team.  Not always consistent, but lots of young players; looks promising.  I’m going back to Sept 10 to find a loss [surprise 0-1 at home to Belarus] … then a string of 20 undefeated matches, with victories over Brazil, England and Germany.  They have some reconciling to do, so I think they’ll “show up”.  They might even make it to the final, if they can get past the Dutch.

Sweden.  Qualified as “best-record” second place team but I really don’t see them getting past the group stage.  Zlatan might work miracles on a good day, but he’ll be isolated, get frustrated, and we all know the results when that happens…

Ukraine.  If the other hosts have a decent chance to get past the group stage, Ukraine doesn’t.  With most players from Dynamo Kyiv and Shakhtar [14 of 23] unity should not be an issue, but at this stage it won’t be enough… especially with a bunch of players [Shevchenko, Tymoshchuck, Voronin] past their prime.

Once the group stage is over, Russia loses to Germany (or Holland), England to Spain, Poland to Holland (or Germany) and Ireland to France.  As you see, still not sure about who will top group B, although I’m leaning towards the Dutch.  Then it’s Germany-Spain and Holland-France… with the final being that WC replay I mentioned above.  Although France may edge them here… in which case we’ll be in for an all-Latin final.  And a revenge opportunity for that 1984 final… [France won 2-0].

There you have it.  The last 16-team tournament “as I see it”.  Come 2016 [France] we’ll have 24 teams.  That’s pretty much all of Europe… So if you think there are some poor teams showing up this time, add 8 more for the next tournament.  But again, money talks… I’m sure when they did the math it was an easy decision to make.  Quantity vs. quality, in the end…

And since I mentioned quality, I hope I’m not alone in noticing that there are less truly consistent good players in the game today.  Some of it may have to do with the number of games played, which takes a toll on players (and increase the chances of injury); other, with the fact that most of the money in the game is provided by the clubs… Why would a player risk it for the country, when his livelihood is provided by the club?  Sure, there’s national pride and all, but look no further than Germany, with players of Spanish, Turkish, Polish, Tunisian, and Ghanaian descent/heritage.  How much “national pride” could be there?  They’ll care first for their club (their paycheck, actually), then, their country.

Regardless, I think we’ll see some sub-par performances [tired players] but also lots of young guys trying to break through.  I’m hoping for lots of the latter.  I’m also hoping for some cracking good games after the first two rounds of group games.       

Personally, I hope I can catch as many live matches as possible.  Work does get in the way of these things, you know…

Enjoy, and watch for an update after the first round of matches.

Stadiums of Hate documentary links: 

More from the WC2010 predictions (and the validation afterwards):