The group stage is fun. There are surprises, underdogs, calculators, and enough permutations to make a mathematician reach for a drink. But once the knockout rounds begin, none of that matters.
Win.
Or go home.
The margin for error shrinks to about the width of a VAR offside line.
Canada vs. Morocco
Canada had the "next door neighbor" home crowd.
Morocco had the better football team.
The Atlas Lions have officially graduated from "nice little story" to "the team nobody wants to see on the other side of the bracket." They were simply too much for the co-host. More organized, more dangerous, and seemingly one step ahead all afternoon.
The Cinderella story continues. She's just wearing a different jersey.
Paraguay vs. France
Paraguay apparently decided that subtlety was overrated.
If they couldn't outplay France, they would out-muscle them.
To the referee's credit (or depending on your allegiance, his everlasting shame) he let plenty go. Until the soft penalty.
Was it enough contact? Probably.
Did France need the help? Probably not.
Will Paraguay still be talking about it in 2034? Almost certainly.
France advance. Paraguay leave wondering what might have been.
Brazil vs. Norway
I'll admit it...
I called this one.
Not because I'm a football genius (although I have my moments), but because this Brazil team has never convinced me. The yellow shirt still carries enormous weight. The aura doesn't.
Norway, meanwhile, look like they were assembled in a Scandinavian laboratory. Big. Disciplined. Organized. Clinical.
Twenty years ago, Brazil going out in the Round of 16 would have shaken the football world.
Today?
It's disappointing.
It's also not that surprising.
That may be the biggest indictment of Brazilian football today.
Mexico vs. England
If someone asks me six months from now what the game of the tournament was...
This one will be on my shortlist.
Goals.
Drama.
Momentum swings.
England down to ten men.
Mexico refusing to die.
It had everything except a functioning defibrillator for England supporters.
England somehow survived. Mexico somehow didn't.
Nobody who watched this one came away feeling short-changed.
Portugal vs. Spain
After my last post, I confidently declared that FIFA wouldn't get another penny from me.
Then Spain drew Portugal.
In Dallas.
Apparently my principles have an 800-mile radius.
So yes... FIFA won again.
The atmosphere inside AT&T Stadium was absolutely worth the trip. Tens of thousands of Spanish and Portuguese (ahem, Ronaldo) supporters turning Texas into the Iberian Peninsula for one night was something special.
Enjoying this as a father-daughter trip on her birtday (and her first live World Cup game) qualifies as one of those Master Card "priceless" moments, no matter what the actual credit card statement shows.
The match itself?
Good.
Not great.
With that much talent on the field, I expected a heavyweight fight.
Instead, we got a high-level chess match.
Spain finally looked like Spain. Quick passing, relentless movement, methodical, but lacking sharpness. And, just to keep my blood pressure in check, there were a couple of moments that reminded me why cardiologists stay in business.
In the end, I wasn't complaining.
A Spain victory over Portugal is always a good day.
The other story, of course, was Cristiano Ronaldo.
If this truly was his final match for Portugal, then we've witnessed the end of one of the greatest international careers the game has ever seen.
Even as a Spain supporter, that deserves a standing ovation.
USA vs. Belgium
The United States didn't just shoot themselves in the foot.
They emptied the entire magazine.
They didn't lose the game. They donated it.
Belgium were excellent, but the Americans made life far too easy with a self-inflicted collapse that snowballed in spectacular fashion.
Then there was the Balogun saga.
FIFA managed to perform an even rarer feat than overturning a red card. They made almost everyone equally confused.
The suspension was lifted.
The debates exploded.
Belgium won 4-1 anyway.
After all that controversy, it ended up changing absolutely nothing. And Balogun seemed to take the suspension serious (even though he was on the field) by doing nothing all night...
Sometimes football has a wicked sense of humor.
Argentina vs. Egypt
Supporting Spain and Argentina in the same tournament has done absolutely nothing positive for my cardiovascular health.
Egypt refused to read the script.
Argentina looked vulnerable.
The ref, controversial, especially for Egypt fans.
Messi looked emotional.
And then, after one of the wildest matches of the tournament, there he was... in tears after the final whistle.
Relief.
Joy.
Exhaustion.
Probably all three.
I completely understood.
Although I managed to keep my own tears to a respectable minimum.
I almost went to the game, but prices were not in line with the alarm sounds coming from my credit report. Obviously, it would have been worth it. I lived it vicariously through my daughter, who was there to experience live the whole emotional rollercoaster!
Switzerland vs. Colombia
Some matches deserve penalties.
This was one of them.
Neither side deserved to lose in ninety minutes.
Or after one hundred and twenty.
But football is cruel like that.
Switzerland held their nerve.
Colombia didn't.
Penalty shootouts remain football's cruelest invention.
Unless, of course, your team wins them.
Then they're a wonderful tradition that should never change.
A Word About the Officials
The referees had... a week.
Some performances were excellent.
Others reminded us why refereeing remains football's most thankless profession.
The France penalty will be debated for a while.
England-Mexico seemed determined to test the referee's cardiovascular fitness almost as much as the players'.
And VAR continued its quest to prove that, despite having forty-seven camera angles and a team of officials in a climate-controlled room, confusion remains very much achievable.
Technology has improved many things.
Consensus isn't one of them.
And Then There Were Eight
Now this is a World Cup quarterfinal lineup.
Heavyweights.
Dark horses.
Old rivals.
New stories.
Morocco continue crashing the party.
Norway have announced themselves as legitimate contenders.
Spain are still alive.
Argentina are still alive.
Which means my stress level has officially doubled.
Quarterfinal Predictions
First, I should pat myself on the shoulder. In my last post, I only missed two predictions. Colombia vs. Switzerland was always going to be a toss-up. US - Belgium? I don't know... perhaps too emotional on that one. Although the Americans simply sent on an "entirely different" team.
So now:
France vs. Morocco – France... but only just.
Spain vs. Belgium – Spain, because I'm biased. Also because I think they're peaking at exactly the right time
England vs. Norway – England. By the slightest of edges. Although Haaland seemed unstoppable. He will score for sure. Question is, will England score more than he will?
Argentina vs. Colombia – Argentina. But not before taking several years off my life expectancy.
Eight teams remain.
My two favorites are still alive.
My wallet is lighter.
My blood pressure is higher.
And somehow, despite everything I've written about FIFA over the past month...
I'd do it all again.
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