Euro 2012. Another big
football [some call it soccer] tournament.
Another opportunity for players to showcase their skills on the highest
stage. For agents to hope for bargaining
power. For owners to whip out the
checkbook and splash excessive “moola” on the latest talent. For journalists and pundits to fill the
papers and the cyberspace with their banter.
For bloggers to pretend anyone cares about what they have to say …
;-)… And for us to waste countless hours
in front of the tube (ok, the flat-panel-thing, rather) and online afterwards,
sifting through all that jazz…
Oh, I left out the main reason: “bin’ness”, of course. Money from sponsors, TV rights, advertising,
merchandise, tickets, tourism… all that… which ensures that UEFA makes a pretty
penny and the hosts recoup their investments.
And then there’s the whole European unity-fraternity thing
that Platini keeps talking about.
Translation: “I need all these Eastern European votes in order to get
reelected”. Case in point: Bucharest
hosted the UEFA Europa League final this spring. Rhetorically, who do you think M. Sandu
[Romanian federation president] will vote for in the next election? ‘Zactly my point!
So in my pragmatic opinion, it’s about money, politics and
ultimately football. Yep. In that order! For money and politics go hand-in-hand; always
the leech-and-fungus combination that kills the sport…
Why else you’d “award” the honor to host such a prestigious
event to a couple of countries where [typical to any eastern bloc entity] corruption,
organized crime, prostitution, and racism run rampart. If you don’t believe me, check out the recent
BBC documentary “Stadiums of Hate”1 (hard to find on youtube, and
not available on their site, but I’ve attached a couple links at the very end…)
While we’re on this kind of “dirt”, who doesn’t love a good
story?? You’re aware of Ukrainian girls’
reputation when it comes to beauty, right?
Apparently, prostitution is also gaining notoriety in that corner of the
world… Imagine that! Recently there’ve
been rumors of legalizing it… So a local feminist group (Femen) is protesting
the tournament (against the potential “prostitution-related activity”) by…… get
this…….. going naked: http://www.euronews.com/2011/12/02/femen-v-euro2012/
and even dressing up as a penis (http://en.gazeta.ru/photo/ukrainian_topless_feminists_dress_as_penises_to_protest_against_euro2012.shtml)
And while we’re on the feminist angle [before I dig myself
that grave, those who know me realize I’m not anti-feminist; on the contrary,
love ‘em!… and I hope you take most of
my “out-there” messages on the topic with a grain or two of salt… but I
digress…] so, then, while on this
feminist angle, did you check out the logos and all the marketing pizazz for
the tournament? So many colors and
pastels, you’d think this was a womens’ tournament. I guess they’re trying to compensate for some
of the Eastern Bloc “realities” I mentioned above…
Enough of all that nonsense.
Little of it will matter once the kick-off whistle is blown…
So let’s talk football.
Personally, I don’t have “skin in the game”, as they
say. Yeah, I like Spain, because I hope the winner (literally and figuratively)
is beautiful football, but I’m in it purely for the entertainment factor. Now, like anyone who’s been around the game
for… ever, I think I’m qualified to give it a go and try to “play out” the
tournament, if you will… Two years ago for the world cup (http://disdatdudder.blogspot.com/2010/06/world-cup-preamble-part-i.html)
I think I did pretty good… all the way to picking the champions ;-)… so let’s
try that again:
Group A: The Eastern-Europeans
Czech Republic. They
came out 2nd from their group [Spain 1st] but beat
Montenegro on both play-off legs to qualify.
They had a third place finish in Portugal 2004, [I recall Nedved leaving
the pitch in tears against Greece… had he played that whole game, we may have
had a different European Champion that summer] but they’ve disappointed 4 years
later when they lost to Turkey [3-2 after 0-2, with the last 2 Turkish goals
scored by Nihat in the last 3 minutes.
Remember that?]. Today, they have
little talent. Sure, Petr Čech is still
on a high after winning the Champions League, and Rosický, Hübschman and Plašil
can form a solid midfield, but I don’t see much in terms of experience in front
of Čech. Milan Baroš is their one “name”
up front, yet he’s never returned to his Liverpool form (although I hear he’s
doing well for Galatasaray [latest report talks about a slight injury, also]). Leading up to the tourney they’re not too hot
(loss to Hungary, tie with Irelnd), so I really see them struggling to get out
of this group…
Greece. Won the
tournament 8 years ago. Finished
dead-last 4 years ago. Pretty sad
display 2 years ago in South Africa also… Ultra-defensive. They barely average a goal per game. Yet, they topped their qualifying group ahead
of Croatia. Personally, nothing against
the Greek, just don’t like how they play football. Simple as that. They “park the bus” [in front of goal], and
hope to get lucky on a counter or a set-piece.
That style pays off now and then… It worked for them 8 years ago. For Inter in the Barca champions League final
couple of years ago, and more recently, for Chelsea, against both Barca and
Bayern. I just hope it won’t happen
here… Prediction: not getting out of this group. Maybe steal a point in the process…
Poland. They’re claiming
the best side they had in a while… No Lato or Boniek in their ranks, but a
young team that will be carried by the home crowd. Szczęsny impressed with Arsenal this season. So did the Dortmund trio [Lewandowski,
Błaszczykowski and Piszczek] that helped win the bundesliga… They might edge
the Czechs out of the group, but won’t go beyond that.
Russia. They should
top the group. They’re hungry, with a
lot to prove. No World Cup appearance
since 2002, and on the European stage they made it to the semifinals last time
around (lost to Spain, the eventual winners).
They haven’t lost a game in more than a year, and just recently
destroyed Italy [3-0] in a recent friendly.
Dick Advocaat knows how to get the best out of his players, and there
are plenty in the squad that have played together for a while. Let’s just hope they don’t flop [like they
did in the playoff for South Africa against Slovenia]. They’ll lose to Germany or Holland after the
group stage.
Group B: The tough one.
Denmark. The tournament
4 years ago is the only Euro they missed in recent history. Yet, this time around, although they topped a
group that included Portugal and Norway, they seem “light” overall. The Laudrup days are gone. The likes of Bendtner, Poulsen and Agger are simply
not good enough to make it out of the group.
Germany. The pedigree
is there. Third place at the last 2
World Cups. Finalists in the last
Euros. Germany will be there again. Only this time inconsistency casts some
doubts over that statement. Perfect
record through the qualifiers, but losses in recent friendlies [France,
Switzerland] may have killed their confidence a bit; or maybe brought a dose of
reality… Value is there, although
defense is not as strong as it once been… it’s a matter of having the Bayern
players refocus after they literally gifted the CL trophy to Chelsea. I see them losing the semifinal, either to
France or Spain (depending on whether they top the group or come in second).
Netherlands. Always
the bridesmaid, never the bride. Always
on the top stage, but the only trophy to show for it – the Euros back in ’88
[Van Basten, Rijkaard, Gullit & Co].
Strange, paradoxical almost, that the country that invented total
football doesn’t really play much like a team, these days. They have plenty of talent, especially in the
top third of the pitch, but can they figure out a way to play together? They’ll likely meet Spain again [if they top
this group – which they should – in the final, otherwise in the semis] which
should make for a mouth-watering replay of the last WC final!
Portugal. They don’t
miss these things, although this time they qualified over playoffs against
Bosnia and Herzegovina. But they have
not shown much since their final loss on home soil in 2004. Cr. Ronaldo has been red-hot this season, but
he never duplicates his club form playing for the national team. They have some talent, but again, another
case where they don’t really gel as a team.
They’re not going to make it out of this group… the Germans and the Dutch
will prove too tough!
Group C: Spain + the
surprise!
Croatia. Strangely
enough, they came in second in their group [Greece first] but killed Turkey in
the play-offs [3-0]. Strong, but
inconsistent. And with Olić out of the
tournament, Eduardo really has to step up.
I think they’ll fight Ireland for the second spot in the group
Italy. The Azzurri
topped the easiest group of the qualifiers.
That may have given them a false sense of security, for they lost their
last 3 friendlies [Uruguay, USA and Russia].
I’m wondering how much the recent Calcio scandals had to do with that… Last
Calciopoli scandal [2006] guided them to a WC win… since then, however, they
managed to exit the last WC in the groups stage. Not much better in the Euros either. The current team is built around a few Juve
players, but – just as I noted in the write-up for the 2010 WC – there’s still no
depth or value. And I haven’t seen any
real superstars coming through, lately… They might prove me wrong, but I don’t
see them out of the group stage. I see
Ireland the surprise here…
Republic of Ireland.
Yep. I see them placing
second. Trapattoni has put together a
strong squad and they haven’t lost a game in over a year [3-2 friendly loss to
Uruguay]. I think they’re going to be
the surprise story in the group stage, and although I’d love to see them beat
France in the first round, for some poetic justice [remember Henri’s blatant
hand ball goal that denied them a trip to the WC 2 years ago?] that’s not
likely to happen…
Spain. Perfect record
in the qualifiers, holders of both WC and Euro titles, and overall an amazing
team to watch. They will miss David
Villa, but if Torres “shows up” and the defense synchs up, another trophy
should be a breeze. Otherwise, they’ll
still win it, but the hard way. I’m
looking forward to a proper beating of Holland this time, so there won’t be any
doubts… [Did I mention I was impartial?
Sure I did…]
Group D: Predictable…
England. Oh,
England. They did not qualify for the
last Euros, but topped an easy group for this one. I see a bunch of tired players, total lack of
creativity in the midfield and no bite up front (especially with Rooney missing
the first two group games). I think
they’ll squeeze in second behind France, but only because the other two are
even weaker… There are some promising young players, but I don’t see ‘em
getting past Spain once the group stage is done.
France. All or
nothing. Either win it all (WC ’98, Euro
2000) or don’t make it out of the group stage (last two major
tournaments). That’s France. But after the disaster from the last WC,
Blanc cracked the whip and put together a pretty decent team. Not always consistent, but lots of young
players; looks promising. I’m going back
to Sept 10 to find a loss [surprise 0-1 at home to Belarus] … then a string of
20 undefeated matches, with victories over Brazil, England and Germany. They have some reconciling to do, so I think
they’ll “show up”. They might even make
it to the final, if they can get past the Dutch.
Sweden. Qualified as
“best-record” second place team but I really don’t see them getting past the
group stage. Zlatan might work miracles
on a good day, but he’ll be isolated, get frustrated, and we all know the
results when that happens…
Ukraine. If the other
hosts have a decent chance to get past the group stage, Ukraine doesn’t. With most players from Dynamo Kyiv and Shakhtar
[14 of 23] unity should not be an issue, but at this stage it won’t be enough…
especially with a bunch of players [Shevchenko, Tymoshchuck, Voronin] past
their prime.
Once the group stage is over, Russia loses to Germany (or
Holland), England to Spain, Poland to Holland (or Germany) and Ireland to
France. As you see, still not sure about
who will top group B, although I’m leaning towards the Dutch. Then it’s Germany-Spain and Holland-France…
with the final being that WC replay I mentioned above. Although France may edge them here… in which
case we’ll be in for an all-Latin final.
And a revenge opportunity for that 1984 final… [France won 2-0].
There you have it.
The last 16-team tournament “as I see it”. Come 2016 [France] we’ll have 24 teams. That’s pretty much all of Europe… So if you
think there are some poor teams showing up this time, add 8 more for the next
tournament. But again, money talks… I’m
sure when they did the math it was an easy decision to make. Quantity vs. quality, in the end…
And since I mentioned quality, I hope I’m not alone in
noticing that there are less truly consistent good players in the game
today. Some of it may have to do with
the number of games played, which takes a toll on players (and increase the
chances of injury); other, with the fact that most of the money in the game is
provided by the clubs… Why would a player risk it for the country, when his
livelihood is provided by the club?
Sure, there’s national pride and all, but look no further than Germany,
with players of Spanish, Turkish, Polish, Tunisian, and Ghanaian
descent/heritage. How much “national pride”
could be there? They’ll care first for
their club (their paycheck, actually), then, their country.
Regardless, I think we’ll see some sub-par performances
[tired players] but also lots of young guys trying to break through. I’m hoping for lots of the latter. I’m also hoping for some cracking good games
after the first two rounds of group games.
Personally, I hope I can catch as many live matches as possible.
Work does get in the way of these things, you know…
Enjoy, and watch for an update after the first round of
matches.
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