World Cup 2018 - Knockout Phase

Well, well, well…

The group stage just wrapped up!  Drama, controversy, surprises, mostly good games, and some, not so much.  All part of the expected World Cup rigmarole.  And the best part is yet to come, as the tournament goes into high gear… Can’t wait!

So, what have we learned so far?

• None of the big teams have really “showed up” yet.  Or maybe they’re just getting warmed up. Croatia has been the exception to that, but overall Brazil, France, Spain & Co. have all been “mediocre” up to this point.  Not to speak of Argentina, barely scraping through with some help from Nigeria and a late right-footed goal from a left-footed central defender, and – especially – Germany!  Yeah, another winner eliminated in the group stage.  Must be some sort of curse…

• There are no more “small teams” (or at least the gap is closing).  Iran, Morocco, Iceland, and the like were only a goal or two away from upsetting the proverbial apple cart.

• Tactics are playing a more significant role in the “beautiful game” (and maybe killing it to some extent). Almost half of the goals so far (43% according to FIFA) have come from set pieces (corners, free kicks and penalties). In a typical league season, that figure is closer to 25%.  The difference explains some of the surprises in the tournament so far, where teams “lacking” in other departments can make up by taking advantage of set pieces.

• VAR has been hit or miss if you listen to the fans.  But given the polarizing nature of it, there will always be a win-lose situation regardless of which way the decision goes.  For me, it’s been mostly “hit”.  I am a proponent of it, as long as it’s used consistently.  Unfortunately, the human element is still in play, and it baffles me as to how some referees still get it wrong after an extensive review.  Overall though (and I have not seen statistics) I think it works.  Just look at the South Korean goal that killed Germany.  The assistant called offside.  After the review, the goal was awarded.  Rightly so.  And just like goal-line technology (less “invasive” of course) VAR is here to stay, whether we like it or not.  Me, for one, I like it!

• None of the African teams made it through (Senegal came close).  I said it before: they are yet to figure out "team" play.  They have a lot of great stars (most play in Europe's big clubs) but for some reason they fall short as a team.  So we have an all-European-and-South American round of 16.   Japan, the only exception to that.  Yeah, I know, Mexico is actually in Central America.  Don’t lecture me on geography…  

• Japan actually only qualified because they edged Senegal on FIFA “fair play” points.  Equal on everything else.  A dreadful way to leave the competition…And here's a thought: since we have some much data on shots, possession, corners, and so on, why use yellow cards as a decider?  Just giving FIFA something to think about... 

Now, as we go into the knockout phase, I’m sure the big teams will “show up”.  They have to.  They all saw what happened to Germany.  And the rest will step up their game as well.  Looking forward to it!

But let’s also look back on my predictions so far.  With two exceptions, I got the groups and order of the teams progressing spot on!  If only Hummels could have hit an open header from 5 yards out with his head, instead of his shoulder, I would have been 7 for 8.  Picking Poland to win group H though, that’s on me.  Not sure what the %$#&^@ I was thinking…

Gr. A: Uruguay and Russia had likely the 2^nd easiest group.  And the Russian’s deficiencies were clearly unmasked by La Celeste. This one was easy to call.

Gr. B: I got this one right as well, but barely (and not until extra time of the last games in the group).  With overtime minutes to play Portugal was top, Spain second, but with another goal from Iran they could have won the group and send the Lusitanians packing.

Gr. C: Called it.  Although I was expecting more from Peru…

Gr. D: Also called it.  Not surprised by Croatia being so strong.  And although I mentioned Argentina being weaker than 4 years ago, I was expecting better.  I’m a huge Messi fan, but I still doubt his leadership when it comes to the national team.  Nigeria did them two favors: first by beating Iceland, then by losing to them...

Gr. E: Five for five.  But nothing to write home about.  Just like France, Brazil topped an easy group.  Not much else.

Gr. F: Would have been 6 for 6 if only Germany could just beat South Korea.  Wait, what?

Gr. G: Easiest of the groups.  Got it right as well, but it was almost comical to watch England (albeit with a reserves team) try not to win the group, just to avoid Brazil in the bracket…

Gr. H: What was I thinking picking Poland to win the group?  May had something to do with them winning the group Romania was in during the preliminaries.  Which now tells me a bit more of how far back my beloved “Tricolori” have regressed in the sport…

All in all, 14 of my group picks have progressed.  That’s just over 87%! Not too shabby.  I’ll have a drink to that!

Now what?

I still stand by my predictions for Uruguay to beat Portugal and France to send Argentina home (it pains me to say it, sorry, Leo).  Spain to break the hosts’ hearts, and Croatia to edge the Danes.  Brazil over Mexico (El Tri does not have it in them to kill another “giant”) and Belgium over the gritty Japan.  Sweden vs. Switzerland has me scratching my head.  Slight edge to the Vikings.  I think (they're here because the ousted Holland and Italy after all, so they seem to "show up" when it matters)… And England won’t have it easy against Colombia, but might prevail in the end (especially since James Rodriguez might be out injured).

For “quarters”, still with France over Uruguay, and Brazil over Belgium, although the Red Devils have impressed me so far (and love Martinez as a coach).  England over Sweden.  Germany out of the tournament opens the way for the Three Lions to keep going.  Spain – Croatia should be the game of the tournament.  So much talent on those two teams.  I’m standing by my earlier prediction, but the boys wearing tablecloth are so pragmatic.  And Spain does not have a coach.  Yet, La Furia Roja all the way! 

France over Brazil in the semis, and Spain over England, to give us one hell of a final!

Tapas and sangrias on me!

World Cup 2018 - My predictions

11 days away and I still can’t build up to the level of excitement from recent World Cups.  I’m sure that making travel plans for Brazil 4 years ago has a lot to do with it, but I really had no desire to go to Russia.  And don’t get me started about Qatar.  That “decision” still reeks of bribery and corruption.  Proof that money CAN buy anything.  Deep inside I still hope FIFA would overturn it, but that looks very unlikely, especially since the recent “independent” investigations have not come up with anything conclusive.  Seems like the revamped FIFA leadership does not have the guts to play that political suicide game… Oh, well.  Let’s leave that alone for now.  Once the tournament is under way, fans will just surely focus on the sport.

To get myself hyped-up, I’m siding with tradition going through my predictions for the tournament.  My track record – with the exception of “calling” Spain winners in South Africa – has been more wrong than right.  But it’s still fun.  So, cutting down on my typically nonsensical (yet somewhat truth-seeded) diatribe, here we go:

Group A:

Uruguay should easily top this group.  Solid defense (Godín, Giménez, Cáceres all very strong) and with Cavani + Suárez up front goals should not be an issue.  The midfield may prove to be a weakness, and despite Tabárez being a good tactician, I don’t see them repeating the 4^th place finish in 2010.  Russia and Egypt will battle for the second.  Home support and referee lenience for the home country may prove to be the deciding factor, but with mostly home-grown players, Russia has not impressed much in recent friendlies.  Egypt has a rising star in Salah, but despite recent success in the African Cup of Nations (lost the final to Cameroon last year) they’ve only been to the World Cup once (in Italy) since 1934!  They have a lot to prove, but the pressure of it might be their undoing.  Oh, and there’s Saudi Arabia in that group; visitors, pretty much…

Group B:

Spain all the way, for me.  I think they have an even stronger team than 4 years ago, and they’re looking to make amends for the group-stage exit in Brazil.  Watching them live lose to Chile at Maracanã is still a bittersweet memory.  Portugal should be second.  There’s no real competition from Morocco or Iran.  The highlights for those players will be swapping shirts [souvenirs] with Iniesta, Piqué, Ramos, Ronaldo, etc.

Group C:

France is easy.  Love some of the young talent they’re bringing on (Dembélé, Mbappé, Lemar).  And they have Kanté (one of the best midfielders at the moment), not to mention Griezmann and some of their more established stars. Oh, and there’s Pogba, who I used to love until Mourinho got his incapable hands on him and managed to destroy his style.  I really hope Deschamps plays him in the more advanced role he used to have at Juve.  Denmark and Peru could go either way, but I give the edge to the Europeans.  Australia may just play the tiebreaker role with those two…

Group D:

Strongest group, in my opinion.  Argentina had a real shot at it 4 years ago, and a stronger team, I believe.  They do have a better coach (imho) but Messi is older and doubt he’ll be able to carry the team.  I hope he proves me wrong, but the reality is, if teams can neutralize him (easier said than done) then Argentina is just another average team.  Croatia is my pick to win the group.  Rakitić, Kovačić and Modrić may prove the best midfield in the competition, and with Mandžukić and Perišić up front, they’ll do well.  Their defense is the weak spot.  And sometimes it’s defense that “wins” games…  Iceland is “gritty” but they no longer have the element of surprise from the Euros two years ago.  Nigeria has some individual talents, but also have a tendency to implode at these things (as do most African nations who are yet to figure out how to get individual talents to play as a team, instead of showcasing their individual talents for potential moves abroad.  For in the end, only a hand-full of teams are in it to win it; the rest is just a chance for players to get that next big contract.  That’s an overly-pragmatic perspective – even for me – but it’s reality…)

Group E:

Brazil top, with a lot to prove from the disappointment of 4 years ago on home soil.  The Swiss second, not by much, based on a bit more experience and depth than Serbia.  Ticos there for the pictures…

Group F:

Germany will win the group, but I think they’re overall weaker than 4 years ago.  May not go all the way, but you can never discount them.  Timo Werner will be an exciting forward to watch.  Mexico may have the edge over Sweden (despite the fact that the Nordics got here by knocking out Italy).  The Aztecs have passed the group stage in the last 6 world cups.  And they have some amazing new talent.  I think technique and speed will win over physicality in this instance.  The Koreans will struggle, as usual…

Group G:

Belgium and England have a very easy group.  At least on paper.  Also on paper, Belgium has a good squad, but they disappointed 2 years ago losing to Wales in the quarterfinals at the Euros.  They should still top the group, and we’ll see from there.  Tunisia and Panama (World Cup debutants), more “tourists”.

Group H:

Poland has been solid recently and should top the group.  They’ll have some competition from Columbia, and Senegal seems to be the strongest of the African nations, but the South Americans should come in second.  Japan could play the decider in this group.

Once the weed-out process (aka group-stage) is complete, the real tournament begins (I’m wondering how long before the World Cup will start adopting the Champions League format where the bigger teams don’t come in until later; I know it won’t, for obvious reasons, but just putting it out there…)

France – Argentina will send Messi and Co. in an early vacation.  Which is why the South American should try to win the group, in order to avoid the French.  Uruguay will beat Portugal, but not easy.  Think extra time or even penalties.  Spain will have it easy with Russia, Brazil the same with Mexico, and Germany with Switzerland.  The closer games will be Croatia – Denmark (Croatia to win), Belgium – Colombia (the Europeans with the edge) and Poland – England (where the brits may edge through, if their weak spot [defense] can figure out a way to stop Lewandowski.

The quarterfinals will pin Uruguay against France (Les Bleus to win), Brazil against Belgium (Cariocas on top, but not easily), Germany against England (always a good duel, but mismatched in the German’s favor this time), and Spain against Croatia (you already know my pick here).

Semis will have France over Brazil (somehow I think the French have more depth, which is always a bit plus in long tournaments) and Spain over Germany.  That should give us a dream final (which frankly can go either way, despite my affinity for Spanish football) and a third place game that would give Brazil the opportunity to make amends for the 7-1 drubbing in the last World Cup.

There.  I feel better, more pumped up already.  My heart says Spain will win again, but the realist in me thinks France has the better squad.  It’s just a matter of how well Deschamps keeps them under control, as they’re known to blow up from time to time (e.g. lose the Euro final against a Ronaldo-less Portugal two years ago).

Oh, and few more things before I go:

1. USA not qualified for the first time in 32 years.  Still can’t believe that “achievement” given the teams in the CONCACAF.  Klinsmann, the first coach to claim that achievement in recent time.  It will have a big effect in the non-soccer-knowing American public…
2. Italy and Holland missing also.  Tells you a lot about how European football has been evolving recently…
3. VAR.  I’m a big fan (considering I’m also a football purist) but I think that they still haven’t figured out some of the “hows” and “whens” yet.  At least in some of the competitions they’re using it already, it’s a bit hit and miss.  We’ll just have to see, I guess, but one thing’s for sure:  Maradona’s hand of god would not be in football history if VAR was a thing in 1986!

And as predictions go, some of my recent hits and [mostly] misses below.  Clearly not that good of a track record, but love going back in time every now and again:

2014 Predictions,  The last 8 and Post Mortem

Euro 2012

World Cup 2010