11 days away and I still can’t build up to the level of excitement
from recent World Cups. I’m sure that
making travel plans for Brazil 4 years ago has a lot to do with it, but I really
had no desire to go to Russia. And don’t
get me started about Qatar. That “decision”
still reeks of bribery and corruption.
Proof that money CAN buy anything.
Deep inside I still hope FIFA would overturn it, but that looks very
unlikely, especially since the recent “independent” investigations have not
come up with anything conclusive. Seems
like the revamped FIFA leadership does not have the guts to play that political
suicide game… Oh, well. Let’s leave that
alone for now. Once the tournament is
under way, fans will just surely focus on the sport.
To get myself hyped-up, I’m siding with tradition going
through my predictions for the tournament.
My track record – with the exception of “calling” Spain winners in South
Africa – has been more wrong than right.
But it’s still fun. So, cutting
down on my typically nonsensical (yet somewhat truth-seeded) diatribe, here we
go:
Group A:
Uruguay should easily top this group. Solid defense (Godín, Giménez, Cáceres all
very strong) and with Cavani + Suárez up front goals should not be an
issue. The midfield may prove to be a
weakness, and despite Tabárez being a good tactician, I don’t see them
repeating the 4th place finish in 2010. Russia and Egypt will battle for the
second. Home support and referee lenience
for the home country may prove to be the deciding factor, but with mostly
home-grown players, Russia has not impressed much in recent friendlies. Egypt has a rising star in Salah, but despite
recent success in the African Cup of Nations (lost the final to Cameroon last
year) they’ve only been to the World Cup once (in Italy) since 1934! They have a lot to prove, but the pressure of
it might be their undoing. Oh, and there’s
Saudi Arabia in that group; visitors, pretty much…
Group B:
Spain all the way, for me.
I think they have an even stronger team than 4 years ago, and they’re looking
to make amends for the group-stage exit in Brazil. Watching them live lose to Chile at Maracanã
is still a bittersweet memory. Portugal
should be second. There’s no real
competition from Morocco or Iran. The highlights
for those players will be swapping shirts [souvenirs] with Iniesta, Piqué,
Ramos, Ronaldo, etc.
Group C:
France is easy. Love
some of the young talent they’re bringing on (Dembélé, Mbappé, Lemar). And they have Kanté (one of the best
midfielders at the moment), not to mention Griezmann and some of their more
established stars. Oh, and there’s Pogba, who I used to love until Mourinho got
his incapable hands on him and managed to destroy his style. I really hope Deschamps plays him in the more
advanced role he used to have at Juve.
Denmark and Peru could go either way, but I give the edge to the
Europeans. Australia may just play the
tiebreaker role with those two…
Group D:
Strongest group, in my opinion. Argentina had a real shot at it 4 years ago,
and a stronger team, I believe. They do
have a better coach (imho) but Messi is older and doubt he’ll be able to carry
the team. I hope he proves me wrong, but
the reality is, if teams can neutralize him (easier said than done) then
Argentina is just another average team.
Croatia is my pick to win the group.
Rakitić, Kovačić and Modrić may prove the best midfield in the
competition, and with Mandžukić and Perišić up front, they’ll do well. Their defense is the weak spot. And sometimes it’s defense that “wins” games…
Iceland is “gritty” but they no longer have
the element of surprise from the Euros two years ago. Nigeria has some individual talents, but also
have a tendency to implode at these things (as do most African nations who are
yet to figure out how to get individual talents to play as a team, instead of
showcasing their individual talents for potential moves abroad. For in the end, only a hand-full of teams are
in it to win it; the rest is just a chance for players to get that next big
contract. That’s an overly-pragmatic
perspective – even for me – but it’s reality…)
Group E:
Brazil top, with a lot to prove from the disappointment of 4
years ago on home soil. The Swiss
second, not by much, based on a bit more experience and depth than Serbia. Ticos there for the pictures…
Group F:
Germany will win the group, but I think they’re overall
weaker than 4 years ago. May not go all
the way, but you can never discount them.
Timo Werner will be an exciting forward to watch. Mexico may have the edge over Sweden (despite
the fact that the Nordics got here by knocking out Italy). The Aztecs have passed the group stage in the
last 6 world cups. And they have some
amazing new talent. I think technique
and speed will win over physicality in this instance. The Koreans will struggle, as usual…
Group G:
Belgium and England have a very easy group. At least on paper. Also on paper, Belgium has a good squad, but
they disappointed 2 years ago losing to Wales in the quarterfinals at the Euros. They should still top the group, and we’ll
see from there. Tunisia and Panama
(World Cup debutants), more “tourists”.
Group H:
Poland has been solid recently and should top the
group. They’ll have some competition
from Columbia, and Senegal seems to be the strongest of the African nations,
but the South Americans should come in second.
Japan could play the decider in this group.
Once the weed-out process (aka group-stage) is complete, the
real tournament begins (I’m wondering how long before the World Cup will start
adopting the Champions League format where the bigger teams don’t come in until
later; I know it won’t, for obvious reasons, but just putting it out there…)
France – Argentina will send Messi and Co. in an early
vacation. Which is why the South
American should try to win the group, in order to avoid the French. Uruguay will beat Portugal, but not
easy. Think extra time or even
penalties. Spain will have it easy with
Russia, Brazil the same with Mexico, and Germany with Switzerland. The closer games will be Croatia – Denmark (Croatia
to win), Belgium – Colombia (the Europeans with the edge) and Poland – England (where
the brits may edge through, if their weak spot [defense] can figure out a way
to stop Lewandowski.
The quarterfinals will pin Uruguay against France (Les Bleus
to win), Brazil against Belgium (Cariocas on top, but not easily), Germany
against England (always a good duel, but mismatched in the German’s favor this
time), and Spain against Croatia (you already know my pick here).
Semis will have France over Brazil (somehow I think the
French have more depth, which is always a bit plus in long tournaments) and
Spain over Germany. That should give us
a dream final (which frankly can go either way, despite my affinity for Spanish
football) and a third place game that would give Brazil the opportunity to make
amends for the 7-1 drubbing in the last World Cup.
There. I feel better,
more pumped up already. My heart says
Spain will win again, but the realist in me thinks France has the better
squad. It’s just a matter of how well
Deschamps keeps them under control, as they’re known to blow up from time to
time (e.g. lose the Euro final against a Ronaldo-less Portugal two years ago).
Oh, and few more things before I go:
- USA not qualified for the first time in 32 years. Still can’t believe that “achievement” given the teams in the CONCACAF. Klinsmann, the first coach to claim that achievement in recent time. It will have a big effect in the non-soccer-knowing American public…
- Italy and Holland missing also. Tells you a lot about how European football has been evolving recently…
- VAR. I’m a big fan (considering I’m also a football purist) but I think that they still haven’t figured out some of the “hows” and “whens” yet. At least in some of the competitions they’re using it already, it’s a bit hit and miss. We’ll just have to see, I guess, but one thing’s for sure: Maradona’s hand of god would not be in football history if VAR was a thing in 1986!
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