Well, well, well…
The group stage just wrapped up! Drama, controversy, surprises, mostly good
games, and some, not so much. All part of
the expected World Cup rigmarole. And the
best part is yet to come, as the tournament goes into high gear… Can’t wait!
So, what have we learned so far?
- None of the big teams have really “showed up” yet. Or maybe they’re just getting warmed up. Croatia has been the exception to that, but overall Brazil, France, Spain & Co. have all been “mediocre” up to this point. Not to speak of Argentina, barely scraping through with some help from Nigeria and a late right-footed goal from a left-footed central defender, and – especially – Germany! Yeah, another winner eliminated in the group stage. Must be some sort of curse…
- There are no more “small teams” (or at least the gap is closing). Iran, Morocco, Iceland, and the like were only a goal or two away from upsetting the proverbial apple cart.
- Tactics are playing a more significant role in the “beautiful game” (and maybe killing it to some extent). Almost half of the goals so far (43% according to FIFA) have come from set pieces (corners, free kicks and penalties). In a typical league season, that figure is closer to 25%. The difference explains some of the surprises in the tournament so far, where teams “lacking” in other departments can make up by taking advantage of set pieces.
- VAR has been hit or miss if you listen to the fans. But given the polarizing nature of it, there will always be a win-lose situation regardless of which way the decision goes. For me, it’s been mostly “hit”. I am a proponent of it, as long as it’s used consistently. Unfortunately, the human element is still in play, and it baffles me as to how some referees still get it wrong after an extensive review. Overall though (and I have not seen statistics) I think it works. Just look at the South Korean goal that killed Germany. The assistant called offside. After the review, the goal was awarded. Rightly so. And just like goal-line technology (less “invasive” of course) VAR is here to stay, whether we like it or not. Me, for one, I like it!
- None of the African teams made it through (Senegal came close). I said it before: they are yet to figure out "team" play. They have a lot of great stars (most play in Europe's big clubs) but for some reason they fall short as a team. So we have an all-European-and-South American round of 16. Japan, the only exception to that. Yeah, I know, Mexico is actually in Central America. Don’t lecture me on geography…
- Japan actually only qualified because they edged Senegal on FIFA “fair play” points. Equal on everything else. A dreadful way to leave the competition…And here's a thought: since we have some much data on shots, possession, corners, and so on, why use yellow cards as a decider? Just giving FIFA something to think about...
Now, as we go into the knockout phase, I’m sure the big teams
will “show up”. They have to. They all saw what
happened to Germany. And the rest will
step up their game as well. Looking
forward to it!
But let’s also look back on my predictions so far. With two exceptions, I got the groups and
order of the teams progressing spot on! If
only Hummels could have hit an open header from 5 yards out with his head,
instead of his shoulder, I would have been 7 for 8. Picking Poland to win group H though, that’s on
me. Not sure what the %$#&^@ I was
thinking…
Gr. A: Uruguay and Russia had likely the 2nd
easiest group. And the Russian’s
deficiencies were clearly unmasked by La Celeste. This one was easy to call.
Gr. B: I got this one right as well, but barely (and not
until extra time of the last games in the group). With overtime minutes to play Portugal was top,
Spain second, but with another goal from Iran they could have won the group and
send the Lusitanians packing.
Gr. C: Called it.
Although I was expecting more from Peru…
Gr. D: Also called it.
Not surprised by Croatia being so strong. And although I mentioned Argentina being
weaker than 4 years ago, I was expecting better. I’m a huge Messi fan, but I still doubt his leadership
when it comes to the national team. Nigeria did them two favors: first by beating Iceland, then by losing to them...
Gr. E: Five for five.
But nothing to write home about. Just like France, Brazil topped an easy group. Not much else.
Gr. F: Would have been 6 for 6 if only Germany could just
beat South Korea. Wait, what?
Gr. G: Easiest of the groups. Got it right as well, but it was almost
comical to watch England (albeit with a reserves team) try not to win the
group, just to avoid Brazil in the bracket…
Gr. H: What was I thinking picking Poland to win the
group? May had something to do with
them winning the group Romania was in during the preliminaries. Which now tells me a bit more of how far back
my beloved “Tricolori” have regressed in the sport…
All in all, 14 of my group picks have progressed. That’s just over 87%! Not too shabby. I’ll have a drink to that!
Now what?
I still stand by my predictions for Uruguay to beat Portugal and France
to send Argentina home (it pains me to say it, sorry, Leo). Spain
to break the hosts’ hearts, and Croatia
to edge the Danes. Brazil over Mexico (El Tri does not have it in them to kill another
“giant”) and Belgium over the gritty
Japan. Sweden vs. Switzerland has me
scratching my head. Slight edge to the Vikings. I think (they're here because the ousted Holland and Italy after all, so they seem to "show up" when it matters)… And England won’t have it easy against Colombia, but might prevail in
the end (especially since James Rodriguez might be out injured).
For “quarters”, still with France over Uruguay, and Brazil
over Belgium, although the Red Devils have impressed me so far (and love
Martinez as a coach). England over Sweden. Germany out of the tournament opens the way
for the Three Lions to keep going. Spain – Croatia should be the game of
the tournament. So much talent on those
two teams. I’m standing by my earlier
prediction, but the boys wearing tablecloth are so pragmatic. And Spain does not have a coach. Yet, La Furia Roja all the way!
France over
Brazil in the semis, and Spain over
England, to give us one hell of a final!
Tapas and sangrias on me!
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